German carmakers trailing global competitors as share prices fall by one fifth
- Share prices of German car makers have fallen 21% since 2014, with VW leading decline
- The top 15 global carmakers as a whole gained 104% over past decade, up 22% this year
- Japan’s Toyota increased 232% over the past decade, vastly outperforming VW
- BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche trail EV leaders Tesla and BYD
Germany’s carmakers, the flagship brands of Europe’s largest economy, are losing market share and generating weaker returns for investors than their global competitors, new research by trading and investing platform eToro reveals.
eToro’s research tracks the performance of the world’s top 15 carmakers and reveals a decade of decline for Germany’s listed carmakers (Mercedes-Benz Group, BMW, Volkswagen and Porsche), with the group seeing a collective share price decline of -9% in the past year and -21% over the past decade. On average, the top 15 carmakers (inclusive of the four German listed brands) have seen share price gains of 105% over the past decade, rising by 22% in the last year alone.
In China, the world’s largest car market, Germany’s flagship carmakers are seeing deliveries fall while they struggle to keep up with local competitors. VW was surpassed by China’s BYD as the best-selling local brand in late 2022 while its market share in China fell to 14.5% last year (down from 19.3% in 2020).[1] Meanwhile, Mercedes-Benz deliveries in China contracted for the third year in a row, falling -2% in 2023.[2] Porsche deliveries in China also fell by 15% last year.[3]
German carmakers have also underperformed in the EV segment against American and Chinese EV competitors Tesla and BYD. Over the past decade, Tesla’s share price has grown 1229% with BYD rising 374%. Tesla commands 19.9% of the global EV market while VW, its closest German competitor holds just 4.8%.[4] 84% of China’s EV market is dominated by local manufacturers, with German car brands gaining only 5% market share.[5]
Commenting on the data, eToro’s Global Markets Strategist Ben Laidler, said:
“The global listed auto industry is the most divided of any we have seen. Germany’s much vaunted car industry is facing unprecedented competition on pricing and technology. Within Europe, many consumers are keeping hold of older models for longer or choosing to go car free. Meanwhile American, Chinese and Indian competitors are developing cheaper models and are leading the EV segment, threatening the market position of German carmakers.”
Legacy global competitors are also faring better than Germany’s listed car brands. Japan’s Honda has increased its share price by 50% in the 12 months, rising 64% over 10 years. Meanwhile Toyota has risen 95% in the past year and 232% over the past decade.
Index performance:
| German cars price index | Global cars price index (15 largest carmakers by market cap) |
|
| YTD | 5% | -3% |
| 1Y | -9% | 22% |
| 5Y | 14% | 123% |
| 10Y | -21% | 105% |
Individual stock performance:
| VW | BMW | Mercedes-Benz | Porsche | Honda | Toyota | Tesla | BYD | |
| YTD | 12% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 24% | 40% | -26% | 13% |
| 1Y | -12% | 2% | 1% | -25% | 50% | 95% | 14% | -15% |
| 5Y | 45% | 35% | -17% | Pre-IPO | 75% | 163% | 1052% | 284% |
| 10Y | -29% | 14% | 25% | Pre-IPO | 64% | 232% | 1229% | 374% |
| Ferrari | Stellantis | GM | Ford | Maruti Suzuki | Hyundai | Tata Motors | |
| YTD | 23% | -1% | 24% | 0% | 26% | 25% | 28% |
| 1Y | 51% | 42% | 35% | 3% | 46% | 25% | 110% |
| 5Y | 206% | 93% | 14% | 16% | 92% | 81% | 370% |
| 10Y | Pre-IPO | 356% | 31% | -25% | 569% | 7% | 149% |
About the data
Simple-weighted index of German and listed global carmaker equities. Data sourced from Refinitiv on 1st May 2024.
About eToro
eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have over 35 million registered users from more than 100 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So we’ve created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors. You can visit our media centre here for our latest news.
eToro is a multi-asset investment platform. The value of your investments may go up or down. Your capital is at risk.
Past performance is not an indication of future results.
eToro is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK, in Cyprus by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission, by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission in Australia and licensed by the Financial Services Authority in the Seychelles.
This communication is for information and education purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial instruments. This material has been prepared without taking into account any particular recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation, and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal and regulatory requirements to promote independent research. Any references to past or future performance of a financial instrument, index or a packaged investment product are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication.
Regulation and License numbers
Europe
eToro (Europe) Ltd, is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities Exchange Commission (CySEC) under licence number 109/10. Registered in Cyprus under Company No. HE 200585.
[1] Volkswagen AG Annual Report 2023
[2] Mercedes Benz AG Annual Report 2023
[3] Porsche AG Annual Report 2023
[4] China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Bloomberg
[5] China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Bloomberg
