Balance of payments and external debt – January 2024
In January 2024p, the balance-of-payments current account posted a deficit of EUR 1,358 million, compared with EUR 760 million in January 2023. The breakdown shows that the deficit on trade in goods declined by EUR 229 million, the surplus on services fell by EUR 351 million, the primary income deficit stood at EUR 376 million against a EUR 27 million surplus in the same year-ago period, while the secondary income surplus decreased by EUR 72 million.
| Balance-of-payments current account (EUR million) | ||||||
| January 2023 | January 2024p | |||||
| CREDIT | DEBIT | BALANCE | CREDIT | DEBIT | BALANCE | |
| CURRENT ACCOUNT (A+B+C) | 11,914 | 12,674 | -760 | 11,435 | 12,793 | -1,358 |
| A. Goods and services | 9,860 | 10,768 | -908 | 9,717 | 10,748 | -1,031 |
| a. Goods | 6,750 | 8,900 | -2,150 | 6,655 | 8,576 | -1,921 |
| b. Services | 3,110 | 1,868 | 1,242 | 3,062 | 2,172 | 890 |
| – manufacturing services
on physical inputs owned by others |
261 | 10 | 251 | 266 | 11 | 255 |
| – transport | 793 | 352 | 441 | 862 | 384 | 478 |
| – tourism – travel | 386 | 569 | -183 | 203 | 654 | -451 |
| – telecommunications,
computer and information services |
824 | 316 | 508 | 830 | 365 | 465 |
| – other | 846 | 621 | 225 | 901 | 758 | 143 |
| B. Primary income | 1,506 | 1,479 | 27 | 1,241 | 1,617 | -376 |
| C. Secondary income | 548 | 427 | 121 | 477 | 428 | 49 |
| p) provisional data | ||||||
Non-residents’ direct investmente in Romania totalled EUR 583 million (compared with EUR 596 million in January 2023), of which equity (including the estimated net reinvestment of earnings) and intercompany lending recorded net values of EUR 697 million and EUR -114 million, respectively.
In January 2024, total external debt increased by EUR 4,314 million to EUR 173,126 million, of which:
long-term external debt at end-January 2024 ran at EUR 125,244 million (72.3 percent of total external debt), up 3.4 percent against end-2023;
short-term external debt at end-January 2024 amounted to EUR 47,882 million (27.7 percent of total external debt), up 0.5 percent from end-2023.
| Romania’s external debt and external debt service (EUR million) | |||
| External debt | External debt service,
January 2024p |
||
| End-2023 | End-January 2024p | ||
| 1. General government | 76,739 | 80,769 | 975 |
| Currency and deposits | 391 | 248 | 301 |
| Debt securities | 61,188 | 64,748 | 623 |
| Loans | 14,957 | 15,575 | 21 |
| Trade credits and advances | 199 | 194 | 30 |
| Other accounts payable | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| 2. Central bank | 3,307 | 3,342 | 0 |
| Currency and deposits | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Debt securities | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Loans | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Allocation of SDRs | 3,306 | 3,341 | 0 |
| Other accounts payable | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3. Deposit-taking corporations except the central bank | 12,973 | 12,935 | 805 |
| Currency and deposits | 8,550 | 8,501 | 728 |
| Debt securities | 4,330 | 4,350 | 36 |
| Loans | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other accounts payable | 93 | 84 | 41 |
| 4. Other sectors | 30,878 | 31,149 | 2,112 |
| Currency and deposits | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debt securities | 863 | 875 | 9 |
| Loans | 13,396 | 13,416 | 940 |
| Trade credits and advances | 16,305 | 16,561 | 1,136 |
| Other accounts payable | 314 | 297 | 27 |
| I. External debt (1+2+3+4)* | 123,897 | 123,195 | 3,892 |
| II. Direct investment: intercompany lending | 44,915 | 44,931 | 2,355 |
| Total external debt (I+II),
of which: |
168,812 | 173,126 | 6,247 |
| Short-term external debt | 47,650 | 47,882 | 5,156 |
| Long-term external debt | 121,162 | 125,244 | 1,091 |
| p) provisional data
* except debt instruments related to direct investment |
|||
Long-term external debt service ratio stood at 11.2 percent in January 2024 against 17.4 percent in 2023. At end-January 2024, goods and services import cover ran at 6.3 months, as compared to 5.6 months at end-2023.
At end-January 2024, the ratio of the National Bank of Romania’s foreign exchange reserves to short-term external debt by remaining maturity came in at 99.9 percent, as against 97.4 percent at end-2023.
Methodological Notes
- Data are updated on a monthly basis. Data for the current period together with the revised data for the base period are available under Data sets; historical monthly and quarterly data going back to 2005 are available in the Interactive database.
- The international methodological standard on balance of payments compilation is ensured by the IMF’s sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The BPM6 methodology has been transposed into the EU legislation based on Commission Regulation (EU) No 555/2012 amending Regulation (EC) No 184/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council on Community statistics concerning balance of payments, international trade in services and foreign direct investment, as regards the update of data requirements and definitions.
- In order to analyse current account data, the following aspects should be considered:
3.1. Goods (on a BOP basis): Source: National Institute of Statistics – International Trade of Goods. Imports FOB are calculated by the NBR based on the CIF/FOB conversion factor set by the NIS. The balance of payments principle consists in entering goods based on the “change in economic ownership” criterion (goods acquired by residents are included, irrespective of whether the goods cross the country border or not), while in international trade statistics goods are recorded based on the “cross-border” criterion (goods are recorded when crossing the border, irrespective of whether they belong to residents or not). In order to ensure compliance with the “change in economic ownership” principle, the NIS data are adjusted by the NBR, therefore the values of exports and imports of goods in the BOP statistics are different from those in the statistics on the international trade of goods;
3.2. Services: Source: Quarterly Survey on International Trade in Services;
3.3. Primary income: includes compensation of employees, investment income (direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment) and other primary income (taxes, subsidies);
3.4. Secondary income: includes current private transfers and transfers of the general government.
- Foreign direct investment: The permanent debt between affiliated financial intermediaries (banks, NBFIs) is not treated as direct investment, but recorded under financial account/other investment.
- The statistical standards for the external debt breakdown by institutional sector are provided by the IMF’s manuals External Debt Statistics Guide for Compilers and Users (2014), Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, 6th edition (BPM6) and System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA).
- Long-term external debt service ratio is calculated as a ratio of long-term external debt service to exports of goods and services.
- Import cover calculated as a ratio of international reserves (foreign exchange + monetary gold) at the end of period to average monthly imports of goods and services for the period under review.
- Short-term external debt by remaining maturity refers to the short-term external debt outstanding at the end of period plus the payments related to long-term external debt due in the following 12 months.
The next monthly press release on the “Balance of payments and external debt” will be issued on 12 April 2024.
e estimated data
